Somewhat unexpectedly, my last entry drew a decent response on Facebook, in person, and via email. Most responders agreed with me, though there was one person at work (I'll call her "Ms. Greene-Earthmother) who took exception to my criticism of the Green "movement," as she called it. She accused me of being insensitive to the "growing environmental crisis" facing our planet and snidely remarked that I as a gearhead just wanted to use up all the resources I could and leave none for my grandchildren after I died. To this, I would respond that I will be Greener than ever after I pass away, as I will have little choice at that point except to leave my body to compost.
The problem with today's Green technology in the automotive sector is a simple case of dollars and sense. The technology is simply not advanced enough or cost-efficient enough to make it an acceptable return on investment, so it ends up being more of a gaudy "look how awesome I am" sort of fashion statement, like a bedazzled Ed Hardy T-shirt or a "diamond" encrusted "Princess" choker. Case in point: the loudest reason by far for hybrid ownership is the fuel savings; this seems reasonable enough - everyone wants better gas mileage out of their vehicle so that Big Oil takes fewer dollars out of their pockets. Honestly, that line of thinking is fine, so long as the analysis stops right there and goes home for the day. Dealers know this - in fact, they count on it.
With hybrids having swiftly become Green status symbols, dealers can afford to slap an elevated price on their windshields as compared to the conventional versions because their elevated fuel efficiency makes them special vehicles to the under-informed. In fact, a common reply that I hear from the Greenheaded - and from Ms. Greene-Earthmother herself - in regards to hybrids' pricing is that "The money I save on gas more than makes up for the difference in price."
Side note: it turns out that responding to this statement with even the mildest snark ("Were you told that there would be no math?") tends to end the conversation, not that there was anything profitable to be gained from it in the first place. People do not take kindly to being educated about their own idiocy for some reason, but it is a mere matter of fact: crunching a few figures - using no post-5th grade math - shows just how efficiently a hybrid sneaks the buyer's money into a salesman's pocket and does little more for the consumer than allow them to start conversations with "Yeah, it's a hybrid." Though for most buyers, this seems to be enough.
With no direct competitor for the Ms. Greene-Earthmother's Prius currently available on the market (no gas-only option, and no comparable model made by a competitor), let's turn the mathematical microscope to the Lexus RX350 SUV, which has both a conventional and a hybrid version available, and is a favorite of the dreaded "soccer-mom" variant of the species. Its front-wheel drive hybrid trim carries an MSRP of $43,560 according to Lexus, which is rather pricey for a smallish SUV. This trim line is roughly equivalent to its front-drive base trim, which presents the buyer with a conventional six-cylinder engine, mostly-equivalent standard features, and a $38,500 price tag. Remember those numbers, as we'll be coming back to them in a minute.
Using the same given numbers as in the previous entry (12,000 miles per year and average gas price of $3.02), we now note that the hybrid's average fuel economy is 30mpg, while the conventional version manages 22mpg. Over the 12k miles in a year, the hybrid uses 400 gallons of fuel for a cost of $1,208, while the conventional version racks up 545 gallons for a cost of $1,646 per year. Edge: hybrid by $438 per year.
Now factor in the cost of the vehicle itself: excluding taxes, interest, and so on, the hybrid RX (referred to as the "RX450h" in Lexus-ish) costs $5,060 more than its conventional sibling. When divided by the average fuel savings per year - again, the most-oft-cited reason for buying a hybrid when the buyer doesn't want to simply come out and say "Because I'm better than you" - we find that it will take 11.6 years for those fuel savings to recoup the price difference between these otherwise-identical models. Most people don't even keep their cars that long. Heck, most people don't even keep their pets that long. Sorry, Molly.
Our next example follows the same basic pattern. The Honda Civic Hybrid commands an MSRP of $24,550, while the closest equivalent conventional model has a price tag of $19,155, but eschews the hybrid model's CVT for a traditional automatic transmission. The hybrid pulls an impressive EPA average of 42mpg, while the conventional version manages 31mpg; this is a difference of 11mpg out the gate, which is fairly substantial. Over the course of the 12,000 miles, the hybrid drinks 286 gallons at a cost of $864. The conventional version gulps down 387 gallons over the same distance and racks up a tab of $1,169 in the process. This results in a difference of $305 per year in favor of the hybrid, but once again, the difference in MSRP proves to be a very wide gap. With the hybrid costing $5,395 more than its conventional counterpart, the $305 that the consumer would save on fuel will take a staggering 17.7 years to make up for its price difference.
To put that in perspective, it only takes slightly longer to give birth to, raise, and finally send a child out into the world. And just like all the money you spend on that child over those many, many years, you will never see a full recouping of the money you spent on that hybrid either.
The next Greenheaded statement is usually something to the effect of "But I drive a whole lot more than 12,000 miles per year. I'll recoup my money much more quickly." Again, snark will not prolong the conversation, so statements such as "If ignorance truly is bliss, you must be happy all the time" are not generally acceptable responses. Unfortunately, neither is a rational presentation of the facts, apparently.
Going back to the RX450h, the hybrid version costs $5,060 more than its comparably-equipped conventional counterpart. To make up for that difference in even the life of a standard car loan, the driver would have to be a prolific road warrior, because in order for the fuel savings to break that mark over five years, you would need to drive around 30,000 miles a year. Even more astoundingly, it would take the Civic owner roughly 45,000 miles a year to do the same thing. While Ms. Green-Earthmother might consider her weekly latte-in-hand errands to be the stuff of vehicular legend, I can assure you, dear reader, that the only way she would reach this mark would be under the following set of circumstances:
McKenna's gymnastics classes would need to be in New York, little Bayden's soccer practices in Seattle, their playdates would have to live in Los Angeles and Miami, and mommy's weekly mani-pedi (heaven help me, I didn't have to look that one up) appointments would have to be in Texas. Even then, I doubt that the mark would be reached, as I overhear Scottsdale trophy wives complain from time to time about having to drive "all the way to Chandler" for one reason or another (for the Google-impaired, Scottsdale and Chandler, both in Arizona, are separated by about fifteen miles of straight freeway. A grueling drive, to be sure).
I have absolutely no objection to the advance of technology, and certainly don't see anything wrong in aiming that technological telescope at fuel efficiency and other Green tech. My objection to the Green movement lies in the fact that for the true benefit of the consumer, a product's Green-ness should not come at an elevated price premium or at the expense of common sense, and the vast majority of today's Green tech fails on both counts. Until this is fixed, hybrid technology is little more than a fad and a marketing cash cow - yet another trendy way for the self-important to be proud and for snobs to be snobbish. As Hetfield mused, "Arrogance and ignorance go hand in hand."